CPI, June and inflation
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was unexpectedly hot, showing a 0.3% increase month-over-month and a 2.7% rise year-over-year. In response, markets fell from recent highs. This is likely due to investors reassessing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
For the second consecutive week mortgage rates moved higher, as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve acting diminished after the Consumer Price Index report.
While pundits looked with their magnifying glasses for tariffs in consumer goods prices, it was in services, which are not tariffed, where inflation took off again.
WalletHub ranks Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma as the top area for inflation increase, sparking economic concerns for residents.
Services inflation, especially rent and shelter inflation, continued to decline, offsetting rising core goods inflation that may be influenced by tariffs, Steve Hou, a quant researcher at Bloomberg, said in a Tuesday post on X.
U.S. Core CPI was lighter than expected for the fifth straight month as slowing services inflation helped to offset higher goods prices.
Both the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) - and by extension, MSCI's world equities index (.MIWD00000PUS) - retreated from record peaks after traders shaved back bets of U.S. rate cuts this year as prices rose for things such as coffee and couches, while staying steady for tariff-exempted (for now) items such as cars.