The weather hasn’t really felt like November in the Northeast and Great Lakes, where temperatures have commonly been 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Nationwide, it’s been the fifth-slowest start to the snow season since at least 2008.

The heaviest precipitation is expected in Central New York and the Finger Lakes, which could see some lake effect snow or rain after the main storm moves through. Temperatures will likely be too warm for areas like Syracuse to see snow, but there’s a 50% chance that higher elevations like the Catskills will.

A powerful winter storm could bring heavy snow, high winds and cold temperatures to portions of upstate New York from Nov. 21 to 23.